Re: Predicting Future Events
It is interesting to me that this thread has been going on over a year now. The methodology of how the team pool has changed several times over the course of the year, but the primary methodology remains intact. The success rate still is claimed to be similar as well.
If in fact the hit rate is at or near 90%, that is obviously phenomenal. This is unfortunately unsubstantiated, as is what is more important to me, the net profit. But that is Alex's choice. I get it. Why does he need to prove anything to anyone? I do see the flip side of the coin, and understand why people would like to see some proof of these lofty claims, or conversely, see them go away.
Couple this with the recent iteration of making a solo pick into a parlay, and this gets even better. I do applaud this strategy, and will incorporate it in to my work. It only makes sense. Hitting even 60%, with better than even money payout, is exceptional.
I have said it all along. There really is no incentive or reason for Alex to keep posting as he has been. If he has no desire to prove anything, what is the point? Just go make your money. If you do want to prove your methodology, why not just post 10 to 20 predictions in a row, prior to the event? I do get this adds extra pressure, which can't help the process, and again, that you probably do not care about proving anything. Just try to understand those frustrated with the lack of evidence to substantiate your claims.
I think there may be a bit of self grandiosity going on here, but that is alright. It reminds me of the neurosurgeon who performed a craniotomy on my wife. He was a pompous, curt, rude, and arrogant fellow. I would never in a million years have him over for dinner, but there is no one else on the planet I would have had operate on my wife. It is his personality, passion, and confidence that makes him the best at what he does. Maybe Alex has the personality to make him excel at what he is doing? Maybe he is full of it? I do not know.
I disagree with Alex that ARV is flawed, and that 65% is not good enough to do very well. It is, admittedly, more of a grind. While I have my concerns as to the feasibility of his methodology, I may put a couple weeks in to it to see for myself, as Alex has said to do. Not really much to lose.