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Predicting Public Events


Staff member
Years ago, I made this website called 'Predict This' with the idea that people could use RV to predict public events like election and trial outcomes, things like that. Daz helped me with a nifty title for it. I never opened it publicly though, because at the time, my health was crashing, I had no time etc., and mostly, I didn't think enough viewers would participate to do the work of it, because someone had to enter events and then feedback.

So, time marches on... not long ago I found two sites that do exactly this! One for cash bets. The other for bitcoin bets.

Given the write ups and discussions (there is a tiny comments forum on each event entry), it seems like they are dominated by the political left, which is pretty awesome, it's like an entire website full of people who just want to give me their money! :) Unless of course I'm wrong about outcomes in which case, I'll be paying them. ;-)

There may be more than this, but these are the two I found:


The latter is the crypto-based site and a number of their events are predictions about crypto.

I think this is awesome -- this is where viewing I think has the potential to demonstrate real-world applications. And payoff.

Could setup a binary Twitter poll feed just for those btc prediction taskings, or rather a Psi based likelihood forecast. Twitter can be used as a dedicated public log, and to keep those posts from cluttering other areas like a forum, etc. Can have as many twitter accounts as you like, and up to four poll options, single vote. As for political events, I rather use polls to filter the most qualified candidates, rather than predict what a popular opinion is going to be. I hope to one day see KARV type polls use for elections and governance, to again filter any bias that isn't helpful.

I'll work on it and make a post.